he capacity supply of the steel pipe industry in 2019 will still be affected by environmental policy, the production of crude steel in the warm season or a substantial decrease in the same period. The high prices of steel pipe (3756, -53.00, -1.39%) are expected to inhibit the low stock of the traders’ hoarding, which will have a strong support for the price of steel pipe in the spring of next year. Sentiment, the price of steel pipe in the 1-4 month or more innovation. In the next year, the increment of EAF and the task of removing capacity are partly hedged. The output of crude steel is expected to fall flat or small in 2017. The rate of demand growth in the lower reaches is down, and the absolute amount is still expected to increase slightly. But considering the two quarter steel production pressure and the demand for seasonal downward pressure after May, the price of steel pipe in 5-10 may continue downward.
The first quarter is the traditional off season of iron ore supply. It is necessary to pay attention to the concrete time of the double production of the steel plant and the strength of the iron ore supplement. Since the downstream demand will be gradually warmer in March, once the price of steel pipe is opened up, the price of the steel plant supplement or the driving of iron ore will go up substantially, and the price of steel pipe will continue to fall after May, then the price of steel pipe will continue to decline after May. The price of mine will also follow the fall, considering the iron ore supply season in the second half of the year, and the new production capacity of overseas mines has been put into operation in the second half of the year. If the steel plant is in advance to stock the iron ore before the November heating season, the pressure of the fall of the iron ore price will increase clearly in the three quarter.
2, 2018 steel pipe futures strategy: 1, screw steel 1805 contract depth of water, the current thread of the discount rate has reflected the market arbitrage in March next year, the northern steel plant reproduction expectations and demand for the pessimistic view of the demand. Next spring, we need to pay attention to the pace of demand recovery. We recommend that we grasp the 1805 contract to repair the premium. 2, next year, under the high profit stimulation, 3-10 month full load production probability is larger, the supply is expected to exceed demand in May, while considering the iron ore supply season in the second half of the year, it is suggested that the machine should be short for the 1810 contract of the screw steel and the 1810 contract of iron ore. 3, at present, the actual production profit of the screw thread is 1400-1700 yuan / ton, and the profit of the rebar 1805 contract is about 1050 yuan / ton, which can be considered as the 1805 profit of the multi thread steel. 4, the current thread steel futures show the pattern of far month discount, when the potential downside of the real estate can not be falsified, when the 10-5 price difference or the 1-10 price difference shrinking hours can grasp the opportunity.
3, risk point: the impact of new restrictions on policy or economic stimulus; the implementation of capacity tasks, real estate regulation and environmental protection; the real estate market has fallen beyond expectation, and the demand of machinery and automobile industries has fallen beyond the expected risk.
After the first half of the year, the investment in electric furnace steel has become a hot spot in the market. In the whole 2017, the domestic large electric furnace manufacturing plants are very full and are in short supply. By the end of November 2017, 96 enterprises wishing to convert the intermediate frequency furnace to the electric arc furnace were going to install 145 electric furnaces, of which 48 were being built and 50 have been put into operation. It is estimated that the output of domestic electric furnaces will increase by more than 30 million tons in 2017, and the output of new electric furnaces will increase further next year. In July, Chi Jingdong, vice president of China Steel Association, explained the policy of changing the arc furnace of medium frequency furnace, indicating that the current medium frequency furnace changing arc furnace will not relax, and it is expected that the reduction replacement will still be strictly carried out in 2018 to limit the net increase in capacity.
The continued implementation of government led capacity tasks, the added capacity release of the superposition EAF may be delayed, expected to increase the effective capacity of crude steel in 2018 or a small increase, but the output of 2018 will be slightly lower in 2018 than in 2017. On time, it is expected that steel supply will remain tight in 1-4 months next year, and is expected to ease in May. The reason is: 1, the northern heating season limited production, November 15th -3 month 15 “2+26” City steel plant will be limited to 50%; 2, the medium frequency furnace reduction replacement, electric arc furnace renewal capacity, is in shutdown construction period, this part of the capacity will be released gradually in the 3-5 month of next year, in the first quarter of this part of the production capacity is not In 3 and 2018, the capacity task is 25 million tons, of which the productive capacity is 25 million tons, of which the effective capacity is 50%. According to the political task in the past year, the capacity task will be overdone in the first three quarter or even in the first half of the year, so the capacity of the one or two quarter is limited, which leads to the tight supply of steel pipes. .
The downstream steel is mainly to real estate, infrastructure, engineering machinery, automobile, shipbuilding, household appliances and other links, the largest proportion of steel consumption is real estate, accounting for about 38% of the total amount of steel, so the real estate market has played a vital role in the demand of steel pipe.
In 1-11 months of 2017, the total sales area increased by 7.9% over the same period last year, down 16.4% from the same period last year. Since the start of the new round of regulation in October 2016, sales growth has continued downward. General housing sales are ahead of the new construction for 6 months, so the slowdown in sales growth has begun to affect the growth of new housing starts. In 1-11 months, the new housing area has increased by 6.9% over the same period, 0.7% down from the same period last year, and the decline is limited, but it can be foreseen that the growth rate of new housing construction area will decline further next year. The increase in land purchase area and the big rise in land prices in first and second tier cities were affected by a large increase in land prices in first and second line cities. In 1-11 months, the total amount of real estate investment increased by 7.5% year-on-year, up 1% from the same period last year. As housing sales growth continued to fall, development loans were tightened,